It’s Friday or the Highway
by Mike White ·
Hi there, my name is Mike and I play Guildball in Iowa. I own multiple Guilds, however, Brewers are currently my go-to-team and I want to share with you some tactical tips and general content around these drunkards in a series called Explosive Brew.
For my first article I wanted to discuss arguably one of the best Brewer’s member, Friday. When I first started playing brewers I was quick to bench her in favor of a punchier lineup. Why score goals when I kick people to the dirt? Interesting enough though, Friday may be one of the best models to start a scrum……. move over Spigot. What makes Friday so good at starting a scrum? Simple, dirty knives! Now if you are still reading, I’ll elaborate (using math) on why Dirty Knives might be one of the best debuffs for setting up your Brewers. We aren’t talking about the poison and damage, but the unremovable defense debuff. With season 3 players now generate 1 momentum if they lose initiative roll, this was an indirect nerf to Brewers who want to knock you down because players can now stand a player up with the momentum not sacrificing movement. Enter Dirty Knives! How good is Dirty Knives you ask? Roughly it is adding 2-2.5 TAC worth of percentage to guild book results.
Let’s take this example of setting up a kill on a fresh 19 hp Ox. Tapper has 6 influence and is in walking distance, he has a 90% chance to KD Ox, followed by a 73.7% chance to Commanding Aura. That’s a 66.33% chance to KD and Commanding Aura on his first two attacks. That’s the easy part. Now the hard part: to dish out 19 damage on four attacks we will need to wrap twice (12), hit our momentous 3 (4) once, and finish with a non-momentous 2 (3). Bonus timing each damage roll gives us a 35.4% chance to deal 19 damage, for a total 23.5% chance to KO Ox.
Let’s add dirty knives to the equation. In this example we allocate 6 to Tapper, 4 to Friday, and again Tapper is within walking distance of Ox. With two chances to land dirty knives that gives us a 98.8% chance of success. Tapper has a 99.1% chance to KD Ox, followed by a 90.4% to commanding aura for a total of 89.6% chance to do both on the first two hits. Since Ox took 1 damage from the Dirty Knives we now have to deal 18 damage in 4 attacks. That means wrapping once (6) and hitting momentous 3 (12) damage thrice. At this point we have an 80% chance of landing our damage rolls for a 70.8% chance of KOing Ox. We went from roughly 1 out 4 times taking out Ox to 7 out of 10 times taking out Ox!!
What about high defense models though? Sure, let’s use Fillet and see our odds of Tapper tapping her out.
Tapper has 6 influence and is within walking of Fillet, he has a 64.9% chance to KD and a 50% chance to Commanding Aura, for a 32.45% chance to do both in his first two attacks. To deal 14 damage he’ll need to hit momentous 3 twice ( 8), and non- momentous 2 twice ( 6). He has a 28.83% to accomplish this on four hits for a total of 9.36% chance to KO Fillet.
Add Friday with 4 influence and Tapper with 6 within walking distance of Fillet. On two attempts to Dirty Knife Friday has an 80.29% to succeed. Tapper then has an 89.1% to KD and an 82.7% to get Commanding Aura if he bonus times the roll. He will need to deal 13 damage by landing momentous 3 once (4) and non-momentous 2 three times (9) with one roll bonus timed. Tapper has a 67.24% to roll 13 damage on 4 hits for a total of 48.1% chance to KO Fillet. Again we see a huge difference in adding dirty knives as we go from 1 out of 10 times KOing Fillet to almost 1 out of 2 times KOing Fillet!
So if you were only using Friday for her 20″ goal threat, ball killing, and cat calling tricks you may just want to add setting up KO’s to the list.
Hello, I'm currently the other half of Counter Charge where I primarily play Cryx. I've recently been diving more into Guildball with Brewers and been writing about them on Explosive Brew. I've also just dipped my toes into 40k with Astra Militarium.
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